Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Negative

ISM Service Index

Starting this week’s calendar was this morning’s release of April’s non-manufacturing (aka service) index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). They announced a reading of 51.6 that was an increase from March’s 50.8 instead of the expected decline. Forecasts had a 50.2% reading, meaning more surveyed service sector executives felt business improved than did last month. This is a sign of economic strength, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

High

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

The rest of the week has little scheduled in terms of relevant economic data, but still has a major event set for Wednesday afternoon (FOMC meeting adjournment). There is just one quarterly economic release and the weekly unemployment update remaining on the economic calendar. It is highly likely that the markets will show little reaction to those reports since they are considered to be only moderately important. It will be other events that are the driving force behind movement in rates the rest of the week.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Tomorrow doesn’t have any relevant data to watch, but there is a 10-year Treasury Note auction taking place that may have an impact on rates during afternoon trading. If the sale draws a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to improve mortgage rates slightly. However, a lackluster interest in the securities, meaning longer-term securities are losing their appeal, could lead to higher mortgage pricing late tomorrow.

Medium

Unknown

None

Overall, Wednesday is clearly the most important day for rates due to the afternoon FOMC events. None of the week’s other activities are considered to be key or highly influential. This means we may see minor or moderate movement in rates other days except Wednesday, unless something unexpected happens. In the day and age of tariffs and other geopolitical events, relevant headlines are possible at any time. Therefore, even though the week doesn’t have a large number of economic reports scheduled, it still would be prudent to maintain a close eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

ISM Service Index

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

None

Float / Lock Recommendation